Housing is a bright spot in an economy that’s still struggling to recover, according to Dr. Michael Miller, Associate Professor of Economics at DePaul University. Dr. Miller was one of three panelists who spoke at the 2013 Economic Outlook, a C.A.R. Member Outreach event that welcomed about 200 Chicago REALTORS® to the InterContinental Chicago hotel on January 17.
While Dr. Miller presented the macro-economic picture affecting real estate nationwide, David Hrobon, President and CEO of Wintrust Mortgage Corporation, presented a look ahead from the local lenders’ perspective, and Russ Haraus, Independent Consultant and National Account Representative, addressed the outlook for home prices, appraisals and related national policy issues.
There is Progress – But It’s Slow
While our nation’s economy is undoubtedly on the rebound, Dr. Miller said, it is at a snail’s pace that is preventing adequate new job creation. As a result, while new entries to the job market may be able to land positions, those considered among the long-term unemployed will remain in dire straits.
“We’ve been through the worst recession since the Great Depression and the longest, slowest recovery,” Dr. Miller said, adding that at the current rate of economic growth, we’re looking at 8 years before the nation returns to the lower 4.7 percent unemployment rate it enjoyed in 2007.
On the upside, however, steady improvement expected in the housing sector will gain momentum as more young adults and others reach a financial position from which they are ready to move on with their lives, Dr. Miller said.
All Systems “Go”
“All positive indicators” are in place for both the single-family and multi-unit residential real estate industry in the eyes of mortgage brokers, said Mr. Hrobon of Wintrust, adding that the good news is expected to continue for both new homes and existing home sales.
Mr. Hrobon cited four factors that will matter significantly within his field in 2013:
- The residential mortgage forecast, which is trending in the right direction, along with growing employment and consumer confidence.
- Regulatory changes that will alter traditional lending and real estate practices, including Basel III and the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill. For the most part, Mr. Hrobon said, the changes will have a long-term positive impact on professionalism within the lending industry, transparency and sustainable limits on credit as defined by the financial environment.
- Government sponsored housing recovery initiatives, which will keep Freddie, Fannie and the HUD in a dominant role for conforming loan sizes.
- Differences between the Chicago area’s housing recovery and that of the nation. Our state’s poor financial health and higher-than-average unemployment rate is compounding difficulties caused by our judicial foreclosure process that has caused a backlog and put a “sewer lid on price appreciation,” Mr. Hrobon said.
In the year ahead REALTORS® can expect greater homogeneity in the lending market, according to Mr. Hrobon. In addition, loans will become harder to originate because policy shifts have increased the costs of start-ups within the financial industry. REALTORS® will have to work aggressively and consistently to have clients preapproved and take other steps to help ensure their ability to secure home loans.
That said, Mr. Hrobon found reasons for optimism. Positive media coverage of housing is increasing consumer confidence, he said, and we should see market movement as pent-up demand among sellers and buyers releases.
Regaining an Edge in the “New Normal”
Steadily decreasing inventory will help stabilize home prices in the Chicago area and also promote more offers, said Mr. Haraus, an independent consultant who encouraged “focused entrepreneurship” as road REALTORS® can take to help lead the way back to prosperity.
Mr. Haraus called for widespread focus on job creation and real income growth, while also citing obstacles that will challenge REALTORS® in 2013’s “new normal:”
- Deferred home maintenance and repairs
- Increasing price challenges
- Greater lender and underwriting scrutiny
- Regulation, compliance and litigation risks to all parties involved in the lending process
To overcome these challenges, Mr. Haraus joined Mr. Hrobon in calling for a need to preapprove clients for lending. He also suggested continuing to build expertise in short sale and foreclosure transactions and other areas vital today, such as rental market counseling, global real estate transaction counseling and relocation counseling – which he expects a need for by about 2014.
Mr. Haraus urged REALTORS® to turn to C.A.R., MRED or other sources for education on the latest technologies that can increase business efficiency and client communication. In addition, he called upon REALTORS® to return to the basics of client service excellence. As the marketplace changes, he said, it is critical to underscore the consumer value of working with a REALTOR®.
View each panelist’s presentation plus the “Finding the Meaning in Data” presentation also delivered at the Jan. 17 C.A.R. Member Outreach event at ChicagoREALTOR.com/economic.