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Wednesday
01Apr2009

Truth in Numbers

Trying to keep accurate and relevant information in front of membership and the media is a full time job here at C.A.R. Our initiative around breaking down the sales data into coherent pieces is ongoing, and the recent separation of distressed (short sale and foreclosure) and traditional sales lets you see at-a-glance how these property trades affect value in areas like never before.

Our statistical history is based on a preponderance of non-distressed inventory sales. Only in the last 12 months has distressed property been a significant portion (+10%) of closed sales. This number fluctuates greatly neighborhood by neighborhood.
You do not get a true picture of price movement by comparing last year's average or median prices to 2009 data unless you can see what numbers are underlying the results.

Next to price and location, condition is the most important factor in a buyer's choice of property or an appraiser's valuation, all other factors being similar or the same.
Foreclosures and short sales often have condition and cosmetic issues, tax liens, outstanding assessments, mechanic's liens, etc.. All of which are subject to driving down the price, as a result of the buyer having to satisfy some or all of the claims.

A foreclosure and a well kept home on the same block share similar location, but it is not an "apples to apples" comparison in many areas of the city when you are trying to determine fair market value using a distressed property as a comparable sale to a traditional home in great condition.

To use the historical record of sales accurately, it is important to drill down to the relevant numbers, and that is why C.A.R. has, and will continue to provide the data in the format of separating the distressed sales from traditional transactions.

We are very fortunate to have an MLS system that has been so proactive in flagging distressed property so there can be an accurate measurement of the sales activity of this segment of the market.

This is about using our sales data as an effective tool for understanding what is happening in the market today.

I agree all sales are equally relevant, when they are properly correlated and understood. There has always been differences in price, the re-modeling of the sales stats provides a better understanding of the how and why behind those differences.

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Reader Comments (3)

I found this data extremely interesting--so interesting that since it didn't seem to get as much "ink" as I thought it should have, I just highlighted it in a post: http://www.thechicago77.com/2009/04/distressed-sales-vs-traditional-sales-numbers/

I would love to hear agents' and appraisers' thoughts on this information.

I'd also like to know if CAR is going to continue to publish this data? Is so, where can it be found?

Thank you!
Rod Holmes

April 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterRod Holmes

Thanks Rod-
Yes, we have been publishing the data on a weekly basis with the rest of our weekly statistics. Members can find the statistics in the weekly e-mail, the REALTOR Connection, as well as on our Web site.

April 20, 2009 | Registered CommenterBlogmaster

I also believe in the magic of numbers and thank you for the distinction between the 2 types of sales, but I am experiencing issues with appraisers numbers right now. They are not seperating the distressed from the traditional and I am being slammed with under valuations with the ominous excuse of "we can only use the past 6 months" of comps. So please, winter market on top of one of the worst housing periods in decades? The tightening of credit and the pressure on appraisers are the backlash of the previous times, but should our sellers really suffer the more because of it? Appraisals should distinguish the distressed from non-distressed and I think we all need to push that somehow.....

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